China continues to play a pivotal role in the global rubber trade, with a consistently high import demand. However, due to China’s slowing industrial consumption, Vietnam’s rubber export volume to this market declined notably in recent months.
Despite the drop in volume, export value increased year-on-year thanks to rising global rubber prices and strong demand from alternative markets amid a global supply shortage. Vietnam mainly exports natural rubber mixtures and primary-processed rubber to China, while the share of processed rubber remains limited. Therefore, Vietnamese exporters are encouraged to increase the proportion of processed rubber to enhance export value and diversify markets to reduce dependence on China — especially by expanding presence in the European Union (EU).
Export Performance in the First 11 Months of 2024
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According to Vietnam Customs, during January–November 2024, Vietnam exported over 1.25 million tons of rubberto China, worth USD 2.07 billion — a 15.5% decrease in volume, but a 5.5% increase in value compared to the same period in 2023.
Rubber exports to China accounted for 70.83% of Vietnam’s total export volume and 69.95% of total export valueduring the first 11 months of 2024, reaffirming China’s position as Vietnam’s dominant rubber market.
Export Prices Rise Significantly
The average export price of rubber to China surged sharply year-on-year. In November 2024, the average price reached USD 1,905/ton, a 40% increase compared to November 2023.
Over the 11-month period, the average price was USD 1,653/ton, up 24.8% year-on-year.
Prices of nearly all rubber types exported to China increased compared with 2023, notably:
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RSS1: +42.8%
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Latex: +37.3%
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SVR CV50: +31.4%
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RSS3: +30.2%
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SVR CV60: +24.7%
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Natural and synthetic rubber mixtures (HS 400280): +25%
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SVR3L: +24.2%
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SVR10: +20.5%
Export Composition by Product Type
During the first 11 months of 2024, natural and synthetic rubber mixtures (HS 400280) remained Vietnam’s leading export to China, accounting for 81.43% of total volume and 84.24% of export value — reaching 1.02 million tonsworth USD 1.74 billion. Although volume fell 19.1%, value still increased by 1.2% over 2023.
The second-largest category was Latex, representing 12.91% of volume and 10.03% of value, equivalent to 162.08 thousand tons worth USD 208.08 million — up 5.2% in volume and 44.5% in value year-on-year.
Other rubber categories such as SVR3L, SVR10, SVR CV60, reclaimed rubber, SVR5, SVR20, and RSS1 also recorded value growth. However, exports of RSS3, SVR CV50, and synthetic rubber continued to decline compared to the previous year.
Outlook and Recommendations
With China still dominating Vietnam’s rubber export structure, enterprises are urged to:
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Diversify export markets to reduce dependency risks;
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Increase investment in value-added processing;
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Strengthen quality certification and sustainable sourcing to access high-end markets such as the EU and Japan;
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Monitor global price trends closely to optimize export timing and profit margins.