Extreme weather conditions are pushing global coffee prices to their highest levels in decades, with forecasts suggesting that the price of a standard coffee pack in Sweden could increase by USD 1–1.5 this spring. According to industry experts, this may only be the beginning of a prolonged upward trend.
Climate Shocks Drive Coffee Price Surge
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“The situation is becoming increasingly severe,” said Minette Rosén, coffee buyer at Zoégas, one of Sweden’s leading coffee roasters.
Coffee prices in Sweden are expected to rise at least twice in 2025, primarily due to adverse weather in Brazil—the world’s largest coffee producer.
“We’ve experienced years of insufficient rainfall, leading to poor harvests,” Rosén noted.
Arabica beans, which dominate the Swedish market, are highly sensitive to climate change. They thrive best near the equator, in humid volcanic soil on steep mountain slopes around 2,000 meters high. However, many of these regions—especially in Brazil, Africa, and Asia—are suffering from erratic rainfall, droughts, and other extreme weather patterns.
“Too much or too little rain, rain at the wrong time, and prolonged droughts — all these factors are worrying coffee farmers globally,” Rosén added.
Swedish Krona Weakens, Amplifying Price Pressure
Over the past year, green coffee prices have risen by 75%, doubling in just two years — reaching the highest level in 50 years.
Since green coffee accounts for about 70% of total production costs, this surge is directly impacting retail prices.
The situation is exacerbated by the Swedish krona’s depreciation against the US dollar, the currency used for global coffee trade.
Anders Fredriksson, CEO of Löfbergs Coffee Roasters, stated:
“The current situation is extremely challenging. Prices started climbing sharply last January and continued to rise through November and December. The worst effects are yet to hit consumers.”
Swedish consumers can expect at least two retail price hikes:
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The first increase of around USD 0.5 per pack may occur within weeks.
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The second increase, of at least USD 1 per pack, is anticipated around Easter 2025.
Global Coffee Price Boom: A Golden Opportunity for Vietnamese Robusta
While Sweden primarily consumes Arabica, Vietnam— the world’s second-largest coffee producer—specializes in Robusta beans, known for their resilience and lower cost.
The surge in Arabica prices globally creates a significant opportunity for Vietnamese exporters, as roasters seek cost-effective substitutes like Robusta.
Recommendations for Vietnamese Coffee Exporters
1. Expand into the Nordic Market
Despite the region’s preference for Arabica, rising prices could prompt importers to explore high-quality Robusta options.
Vietnamese exporters should promote Robusta as a sustainable, affordable alternative suitable for blends or instant coffee production.
2. Upgrade Robusta Quality
To meet Northern European taste preferences, producers should:
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Invest in premium Robusta varieties with milder bitterness and richer aroma
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Apply sustainable farming standards and post-harvest processing innovations
3. Strengthen Branding and Certifications
Obtaining certifications like Rainforest Alliance and Fair Trade can improve market access and consumer trust.
Pairing these certifications with a sustainability-focused narrative will resonate strongly with European eco-conscious buyers.
4. Diversify Product Portfolio
Develop Arabica–Robusta blends to match Nordic flavor profiles.
Blended products can serve as an entry point for Robusta-based coffee into traditionally Arabica-dominated markets.
Conclusion
The global coffee price surge—driven by climate instability and currency volatility—poses challenges for global consumers but also creates strategic opportunities for Vietnamese coffee exporters.
By improving quality, sustainability, and branding, Vietnam’s Robusta coffee can gain a stronger foothold in Europe, particularly in Sweden and the broader Nordic market.