Global rubber prices are forecast to enter a strong recovery phase from 2025 to 2030, driven by a widening supply deficit and improving global demand. VRG Deputy CEO Trần Thanh Phụng highlights key market fundamentals and long-term growth potential.
(CSVN) – According to Mr. Trần Thanh Phụng, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG), the rubber market is entering a positive recovery cycle for the 2025–2030 period, supported by tightening supply and steady demand growth.
Rubber, like other commodities, follows a price trend largely determined by global supply and demand dynamics. The following table presents the projected global rubber balance for 2025–2030:
| Year | Production (million tons) | Demand (million tons) | Surplus/Deficit (million tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14.710 | 15.567 | -0.857 |
| 2026 | 14.948 | 16.031 | -1.083 |
| 2027 | 15.060 | 16.479 | -1.419 |
| 2028 | 15.113 | 16.924 | -1.811 |
| 2029 | 15.114 | 17.352 | -2.238 |
| 2030 | 15.118 | 17.777 | -2.659 |
Source: VRG/ANRPC – Forecast data based on global agricultural trends and macroeconomic indicators.
Widening Supply Gap and Slower Production Growth
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Forecasts indicate that production growth will lag far behind demand expansion over the next five years. Global rubber output is expected to increase by only 3.1% in 2025, then slow to below 1% annually thereafter. Meanwhile, demand growth will average 2.5–3% per year, pushing the global supply deficit beyond 1 million tons in 2026 and over 2.6 million tons by 2030.
Price Outlook: Strong Recovery Expected
Based on the projected supply-demand imbalance and other supportive fundamentals, rubber prices are forecast to recover sharply throughout 2025–2030.
Prices are expected to rise significantly from mid-January 2025 through December, accelerating further in 2026 and beyond. The TSR-20 front-month futures contract traded on the SGX SICOM exchange is projected to range between USD 2,000–2,800 per ton in 2025 and USD 2,800–3,500 per ton in 2026. In subsequent years, prices could rise even higher amid a possible speculative rally.
Macroeconomic Assumptions and Key Drivers
These forecasts assume a decline in global inflation, lower interest rates, and reduced borrowing costs across major economies. By late 2025, China’s manufacturing recovery is expected to gain momentum, further stimulating rubber demand.
Prices of synthetic rubber are also anticipated to move upward alongside natural rubber, limiting substitution effectsbetween the two materials.
However, if output in key producing countries — such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam — fails to recover, prices could rise much faster than projected during 2025–2026.
Capital Flows and Speculative Momentum
While a stronger U.S. dollar might modestly cap price increases, the severe supply deficit remains the dominant driver. Rising investment inflows and speculative capital seeking profit opportunities could amplify the uptrend, potentially pushing prices beyond even the most optimistic forecasts.
Long-Term Outlook and Market Volatility
Mr. Phụng emphasized that market forecasting requires continuous monitoring of both short- and long-term fundamentals, as commodity markets are inherently volatile.
Even within a strong upward cycle, short-term corrections are possible due to external shocks such as macroeconomic shifts, climate disruptions, or geopolitical risks.
Nonetheless, the overall trajectory for 2025–2030 remains clearly positive. The rubber industry is poised for structural recovery, driven by supply shortages, improving demand, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.