Forecast on Agricultural Commodities

The Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development (IPSARD) will hold its annual conference on May 12 to present analysis and market forecasts for Vietnam’s coffee sector and several other key agricultural industries.

According to IPSARD, this year the increasing impact of weather events and natural disasters could reduce food production and cause localized hunger in vulnerable areas. At the same time, Vietnam’s commitments to international economic integration and the liberalization of agricultural, forestry, and seafood trade with global organizations and foreign countries are expanding in both scale and depth, making the competitive environment for Vietnamese agricultural products increasingly challenging.

For 2010, the global agricultural commodity markets are expected to remain volatile. Notably, these fluctuations are forecast to be driven less by supply–demand imbalances and more by activity in financial markets and shifts in foreign exchange policies of various countries.

Domestically, rapid credit growth is adding pressure on inflation and creating risks of a weakening currency. This, in turn, may destabilize price mechanisms for domestic agricultural production during 2010.

IPSARD hopes that this conference will provide detailed analysis of these risks and market forecasts, contributed by experts from IPSARD, the Center for Agricultural Policy (CAP), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the ARDSPS rural development program. The goal is to help farmers and agribusinesses reduce risks and seize opportunities in pricing and market trends throughout 2010.