According to the April 2023 Statistical Bulletin released by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber (NR) production grew by only 1.5% year-on-year, reaching 896,000 tons in April 2023. This sluggish growth in supply may serve as a catalyst for rubber price increases in the second quarter of the year.
Rising Global Demand
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In contrast, global natural rubber demand rose by 2.7% year-on-year to 1.241 million tons, outpacing supply growth. The natural rubber market remains highly sensitive to global sentiment — while fundamentals appear positive, concerns over rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict continue to weigh on investor confidence. The global economic recovery in 2023 is expected to remain slower than anticipated, further shaping price dynamics.
Volatile Price Movements in Q1
During the first quarter, rubber prices on major Asian exchanges fluctuated sharply. After a strong rally in January, prices corrected in February and March amid banking crises in the U.S. and the EU, which cast uncertainty over global economic prospects.
These developments triggered concerns over reduced demand for rubber in industrial production and consumer goods, pressuring prices downward. Meanwhile, key consumer markets such as China and Japan have not yet demonstrated a full recovery in manufacturing activity, keeping market sentiment fragile.
Domestic Rubber Prices in Vietnam
In Vietnam, latex prices remained relatively stable in Q1, mirroring global trends but at a lower intensity compared to international commodity exchanges.
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Binh Phuoc and Dong Nai: 270–280 VND/TSC
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Dak Lak, Phu Yen, Quang Tri: ~250 VND/TSC
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Other provinces: 225–240 VND/TSC
Higher energy and logistics costs continued to put pressure on rubber export margins early in the year.
Global Supply-Demand Outlook
For 2023, ANRPC projects:
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Global natural rubber production: ~14.916 million tons
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Global consumption: ~14.912 million tons
This near-balance — slightly in favor of a supply deficit — could serve as a bullish factor for rubber prices moving into Q2.
However, risks remain. The global economy is still recovering from the March banking shock, and China’s industrial rebound has been slower than expected. The Import–Export Department of Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade warns that despite supportive fundamentals, global rubber prices may continue facing short-term downward pressure.