Based on forecasts for the 2024–2025 global rice crop, with India’s 100% broken rice reserves nearly nine times higher than the target, the country’s decision to lift the export ban on 100% broken rice is expected to intensify competition and exert downward pressure on global rice prices.
India Resumes 100% Broken Rice Exports
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On March 7, the Government of India announced the resumption of 100% broken rice exports following a bumper harvest that led to record-high stockpiles at the beginning of February — nearly nine times the government’s reserve target.
This policy shift aims to reduce India’s surplus stock, help lower-income African countries secure more affordable grain supplies, and boost raw material availability for feed and ethanol producers across Asia.
India initially banned 100% broken rice exports in September 2022, later extending restrictions to most other rice varieties in 2023 due to severe drought conditions.
Impact on Global Rice Markets
In 2022, India exported 3.9 million tons of broken rice, primarily to China (for animal feed) and to African countriessuch as Senegal and Djibouti for human consumption.
Broken rice is a byproduct of the milling process and is widely favored in African markets for its lower cost compared to other grades.
According to Himanshu Agrawal, CEO of exporter Satyam Balajee, India’s 100% broken rice is currently offered at around USD 330 per ton, higher than Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan, where prices hover around USD 300 per ton.
Despite this gap, India’s re-entry into the market is expected to reshape global price dynamics.
Krishna Rao, Chairman of the Rice Exporters Association (REA), projected that India could export approximately 2 million tons of broken rice in 2025.
India’s Massive Rice Reserves and Global Supply Outlook
According to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI), India’s public rice reserves — including unmilled paddy — reached 67.6 million tons as of February 1, compared to the government’s target of 7.6 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global rice production for the 2024–2025 crop year at a record 533.7 million tons, up 11 million tons from the previous year.
Total supply is expected to reach 712.8 million tons, while global consumption is projected at 530.3 million tons, mainly driven by India and the Philippines.
End-of-year global rice stocks are estimated at 182.5 million tons, with 81% held by India and China.
With India’s excessive reserves and the lifting of the export ban, global rice competition is likely to intensify, putting significant downward pressure on international prices, especially in lower-grade segments.
Vietnam’s Position in a Competitive Market
The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) reported that domestic rice prices have declined since early March 2025, making Vietnam one of the most affordable suppliers.
However, 80% of Vietnam’s rice exports in the past two months have been high-quality varieties, not directly competing with India’s 100% broken rice.
Still, the surge in Indian supply could indirectly affect global price levels, particularly for low-grade rice segments.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam’s rice industry faces mounting challenges, including price competition from Pakistan and Myanmar, rising input costs, and import barriers in the EU, Japan, and the U.S.
Nonetheless, Vietnamese fragrant rice continues to hold strong in premium markets, supported by deep economic integration and sustainable production policies.
If Vietnam continues to improve quality and optimize production, it can maintain stable market share despite growing international pressure.
Price Comparison (as of March 7, 2025)
| Country | Type | Export Price (USD/ton) |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 100% broken rice | 307 |
| Pakistan | 100% broken rice | 308 |
| India | 100% broken rice | 330 |
| Myanmar | 100% broken rice | ~300 |