The International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) announced a partnership with Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore, to conduct in-depth research on the economic and social impacts of climate change on the rubber industry, as well as on traceability and sustainability within the natural rubber supply chain.
Rubber – A Strategic and Irreplaceable Raw Material
Natural rubber (NR) remains a strategic, irreplaceable raw material for the global economy. As of 2019, global NR plantations covered around 14 million hectares, producing 13.01 million tons. Thailand and Indonesia alone accounted for 56% of global output, while Southeast Asia contributed 84% of the world’s total production (IRSG, 2021).
Rubber production provides livelihoods for nearly 40 million people worldwide, with about 90% of the total output produced by smallholder farmers. Rubber is used in over 5,000 products, primarily in the automotive and aviation industries, with more than 70% of production consumed in tires and related automotive components.
The Hevea brasiliensis rubber tree thrives in regions with average temperatures of 25–28°C and annual rainfall exceeding 1,500 mm. It prefers acidic, well-drained soils (optimal pH 4.5–5.5). Climate change, however, is altering these ideal conditions — making traditional growing regions more vulnerable to droughts or excessive rainfall, while some marginal regions are becoming more suitable for cultivation.
Studies have shown changing suitability patterns for rubber in China, India, and Malaysia. Warmer and wetter marginal zones such as Northern Thailand, Laos, Yunnan and Hainan (China), southern Brazil, northern Gabon, and southeastern Cameroon could become new frontiers for rubber cultivation. In contrast, some areas currently dedicated to oil palm may shift to rubber as they become drier.
NTU and IRSG Join Forces for Climate and Supply Chain Research
To better understand these dynamics, NTU’s Singapore Agri-Food Innovation Lab (SAIL) will lead research assessing the economic and social impacts of climate change on the rubber sector. The study will refine IRSG’s supply-demand forecasting model for both natural and synthetic rubber, integrating new upstream and downstream variables in the global value chain.
Based on this recalibrated model, researchers will produce a white paper outlining how climate change affects rubber trade, production, livelihoods, and community resilience.
IRSG Secretary-General Salvatore Pinizzotto emphasized the importance of this initiative:
“Further research is essential to ensure that natural rubber is produced and distributed following the best sustainability practices. A robust knowledge-based approach will drive better decision-making throughout the supply chain and improve the welfare of smallholder communities worldwide.”
Traceability and Sustainability: The Next Frontier
In the second phase of collaboration, IRSG and NTU will deepen their research on sustainability from plantation to supply chain. Traceability remains one of the greatest challenges in ensuring rubber sustainability — about 85% of the world’s natural rubber comes from small, independent producers with limited interaction with downstream buyers.
The natural rubber supply chain is highly fragmented, involving numerous intermediaries who purchase from smallholders and sell to processors. This complexity makes tracking the origin of rubber extremely difficult.
Moreover, assessing the sustainability performance of small, independent producers poses challenges for downstream companies. Since natural rubber is non-perishable and easily transported, plant-level data often fail to reflect information relevant to the farm or smallholder level.
As part of the partnership, IRSG will fund the NTU-CEIT PhD Fellowship at the Centre of Excellence International Trading (CEIT).
Dr. Ru Hong, Director of Research at CEIT, noted:
“Rubber is one of the world’s most important commodities, directly supporting over 40 million people. It is crucial to ensure that both plantations and supply chains are managed sustainably.”