1994
Table of Contents
In early June 1994, world coffee prices surged sharply due to concerns over low output. On June 8, Robusta prices in London hit USD 3,150/ton—a record high at that time and still remarkable today.
In Vietnam’s domestic market, fierce competition among trading companies and agricultural firms pushed prices to fluctuate 2–3 times a day, soaring to a peak of 43 million VND/ton.
However, this record lasted only about 150 minutes before dropping to 39 million VND/ton, at which point buyers disappeared. The market froze, and prices only reappeared three days later at 36 million VND/ton, then continued to decline.
The downward trend persisted until the end of August, before prices spiked again in September when news broke that Brazil had suffered its first frost of the year, severely damaging its crop and cutting expected output by half.
Domestic prices also rose, again hitting 43 million VND/ton, with some regions reporting 45 million VND/ton.
But after September, both global and domestic coffee prices fell continuously, partly because high prices had encouraged expanded planting, leading to oversupply.
2008
Not until March 2008 did coffee prices recover strongly, reaching over USD 2,700/ton on the world market and 40.1 million VND/ton domestically on March 3.
That year, similar to late 2010, Vietnam’s crop was forecast to decline sharply—losses of 20%, 30%, even up to 40% in some regions—bringing total output down by around 30%.
Poor harvest news from Vietnam, Colombia, and Brazil pushed world prices to their highest since 1994, coinciding with the Lunar New Year holiday in Vietnam.
On March 14, the market experienced what traders dubbed “Black Friday” on the London exchange. After prices had risen over USD 150/ton in the two prior sessions, traders and speculators offloaded heavily. As a result, prices fell USD 127/ton that day, with the gap between high and low reaching USD 179/ton. In Vietnam, prices dropped to 37.5 million VND/ton on March 15, down 1.5 million from the day before.
Like in 1994, the market declined for several months before surging again in July 2008, exceeding USD 2,400/ton, and remained above USD 2,000/ton until late September.
2011
Both world and domestic coffee markets were highly volatile this year, repeatedly breaking records.
World prices surpassed USD 2,500/ton for the first time since March 2008, while domestic prices climbed past previous highs to over 49 million VND/ton. Compared with a year earlier, prices had more than doubled. From the start of 2011, excluding two sharp drops on March 10–11, Robusta prices had risen more than 20%.
The market cooled after peaking on March 9 globally and March 10 domestically. World prices fell USD 136/ton in the last two sessions of that week after a USD 154/ton rise in the two sessions before.
In Vietnam, after hitting 49 million VND/ton on the morning of March 10, prices quickly fell as dealers refused to buy at the higher May futures rate, instead calculating at the lower March rate (less than USD 20 increase). Prices soon dropped back to 45.4 million VND/ton.
These movements mirrored the scenarios of 2008 and 1994, driven by investor profit-taking, panic selling, and domestic dealers unwilling to pay extremely high rates.
2024
The year 2024 can be described as an unprecedentedly volatile year for Vietnam’s coffee industry as well as the global market.
On April 25, 2024, Robusta futures in London surpassed the historical peak set in September 1994, closing at USD 4,574/ton. In Vietnam, domestic prices also climbed to a historic 132,000 VND/kg, and in the following days surged further, exceeding 134,000 VND/kg.
However, this record was short-lived. Immediately after the long holiday for April 30–May 1, both domestic and global coffee prices collapsed.
Within just 5 trading sessions, Robusta prices on the London exchange plunged more than USD 800/ton. In Vietnam, domestic prices also dropped sharply, crashing from 134,000 VND/kg to around 100,000 VND/kg in only 5 days.