According to statistics, about 100,000 hectares of coffee in Vietnam will need to be replanted, and by 2020, more than half of the total coffee area—around 250,000 hectares out of the country’s current 500,000 hectares—will require replanting.
This raises pressing questions: How will this impact Vietnam’s coffee output in the coming years? And what effect might it have on the country’s global standing in the coffee market?
The Importance of Coffee Replanting
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Experts from the Western Highlands Agriculture and Forestry Science Institute are currently replanting 180 hectares of coffee, with 100 hectares already completed. According to the Institute, replanting and rehabilitating old, unproductive coffee farms is essential.
Vietnam now has over 500,000 hectares of coffee, mainly in the Central Highlands and Southeast. Among these, 100,000 hectares are over 20 years old and must be replanted, while another 150,000 hectares aged 15–20 years already show signs of decline. Rapid expansion without attention to seed quality, regional planning, or proper farming techniques has further reduced the value of Vietnamese coffee.
For this reason, many experts argue that replanting old coffee areas is inevitable. Though it requires sacrifice in the short term, it is vital for sustaining productivity and quality in the long run.
From 2000–2010, Vietnam’s coffee area expanded at about 2% per year. This growth helped the country maintain an output of over one million tons per year up to 2018. However, without timely replanting, production, export revenues, and global competitiveness will be at risk.
Balancing Costs and Export Output
Replanting inevitably reduces coffee production in the short term, since large areas of old coffee must be cut down and replanted. This raises a difficult challenge: How to maintain export targets and global market share while ensuring farmers’ livelihoods during the 3–5 years before replanted trees bear fruit?
Mr. Lương Văn Tự, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, notes:
“If replanting is carried out on a large scale, it will certainly reduce coffee output and exports. Colombia’s experience shows that when they replanted widely, output dropped from 12.3 million tons per year to as low as 7.3 million tons.”
The Association calculates that replanting requires at least 100 million VND per hectare. Yet, with 90% of Vietnam’s coffee grown by smallholder farmers, financing this is a serious challenge. Even coffee companies themselves often struggle to secure bank loans.
Solutions have been proposed—lowering investment costs, introducing high-yield varieties, applying advanced technologies, and promoting farmer–enterprise partnerships. Still, a comprehensive strategy and clear roadmap are needed; quick fixes will not suffice.
Dr. Nguyễn Anh Phong, Director of the Western Highlands Agriculture and Forestry Science Institute, stresses that replanting must start with a thorough review of Vietnam’s coffee-growing areas. Only then can tailored plans and targeted support policies be developed for each region.
With annual coffee export revenues near USD 2 billion, replanting will inevitably reduce production for several years, potentially weakening Vietnam’s global market position. However, this is a necessary step to ensure the sustainable development of this vital crop.
International Experiences
Other coffee-producing countries provide useful lessons:
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Colombia: With its “Competitiveness Enhancement” and “Long-Term Sustainability” programs, Colombia limits replanting to 20% of each farm’s area annually, with a goal of renewing 300,000 hectares of old coffee by 2020—70,000 hectares each year. The government, through the Coffee Fund, subsidizes fertilizer costs, pays 40% of farmers’ debt, and covers loan interest.
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India: To encourage replanting, the Indian government allocated 1 billion rupees (approx. USD 20.4 million) between 2007–2012 to renew 40,000 hectares of coffee. Farmers with up to 2 hectares were subsidized for 40% of replanting costs. Estimated replanting costs were USD 2,000/ha for Arabica and USD 1,400/ha for Robusta.
A Necessary but Careful Step
With exports exceeding one million tons annually, Vietnam ranks second globally in coffee exports. Yet, with aging plantations expanding rapidly, production gains are at risk. Replanting and rejuvenating old farms is essential for the long-term health of the sector.
Still, to avoid sharp declines in output that could weaken Vietnam’s global standing, replanting must be carried out gradually, strategically, and with strong support from both government and industry.