DGBAS trims outlook: H1 2025 up 5.35%, H2 just 1% amid trade and financial uncertainty. Full-year GDP 3.10%; CPI 1.88%.
Key Takeaways
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Recent performance: 2024 GDP +4.84%; Q4/2024 yoy +3.82%.
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Q1/2025: real GDP +5.48% yoy, topping prior estimates.
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Export drivers: semiconductors & ICT buoyed by AI-related computing demand; server-AI supply bottlenecks eased.
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H2 2025 outlook: exports to cool after front-loading ahead of US tariffs → H2 growth ~1.00%.
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Full-year 2025: GDP +3.10%; real exports of goods & services +11.44%; private consumption +1.64%; private fixed investment +5.77%.
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Inflation: CPI +1.88%, softened by lower oil/input costs and a stronger TWD.
Context and Impacts
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Global headwinds: rising protectionism; IMF cut 2025 global trade growth to 1.7%.
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Risks & opportunities: AI demand keeps ICT resilient; property slowdown and geo-trade risks weigh on broader capex.
Implications for Vietnamese Businesses
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Electronics supply: sustained opportunities in PCB, precision metal parts, casings, technical packaging tied to Taiwan’s ICT chain.
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Logistics: expect softer run-rates in H2 post front-loading—optimize shipping and inventories.
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Consumer goods: modest private consumption → cautious retail plans for H2/2025.