The strong outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic along with the application of social distancing measures have affected the circulation of goods, leading to the disruption of supply chains and affecting production and business activities. businesses.
In the first 7 months of 2021, the situation in the world and the region continues to evolve very quickly, complicatedly and unpredictably, with favorable and unfavorable factors intertwined. Domestically, the strong outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic along with the application of social distancing measures to control the spread of the disease in many provinces and cities such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai and 16 southern provinces and cities have affected the circulation of goods, leading to the disruption of supply chains and affecting the production and business activities of enterprises.
Industrial production is in trouble
The index of industrial production (IIP) in July 2021 only increased by 1.8% compared to the previous month and increased by 2.2% over the same period last year, which is the lowest increase in the past 7 months (except for January). 02 has the least number of working days). In which, the mining industry in July decreased by 8%; processing and manufacturing increased by 2.9%; electricity production and distribution increased by 6.7%; water supply, management and treatment of waste and wastewater increased by 4.4% over the same period.
In the first 7 months of 2021, IIP is estimated to increase by 7.9% over the same period last year, much higher than the 2.6% increase in the same period in 2020 and lower than the increase of 9.4% in the same period last year. 2019. Of which, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 9.9% (in the same period in 2020 by 4.2%), contributing 8.1 percentage points to the overall growth; electricity production and distribution increased by 8.2%, contributing 0.7 percentage points; water supply industry, waste and wastewater treatment and management activities increased by 5.6%, contributing 0.1 percentage points; the mining industry alone decreased by 6.3%, reducing 1 percentage point in the overall increase.
Production indexes in the first seven months of 2021 of a number of key industries belonging to level II industries increased sharply compared to the same period last year, such as: Metal production increased by 34.7%; motor vehicle production increased by 30.6%; production of leather and related products increased by 14.2%; production of machinery and equipment not classified elsewhere increased by 13%.
In the opposite direction, a number of industries had a decrease in production index: Crude oil and natural gas exploitation decreased by 10.4%; hard coal and lignite mining decreased by 2.9%; repair, maintenance and installation of machinery and equipment decreased by 1.1%; Other processing and manufacturing industries decreased by 15.8%.
Some major industrial products in the first 7 months of 2021 increased higher than the same period last year: Rolled steel increased by 55.9%; mobile phone components by 40%; automobiles increased by 39.6%; leather shoes and sandals increased by 19.3%; iron and crude steel increased by 16.2%; NPK compound fertilizer increased by 15.4%; mobile phones increased by 14.1%; fabrics made from man-made fibers and natural fibers together increased by 10.6%; casual wear increased by 9.5%.
Meanwhile, a number of products decreased compared to the same period last year, including: Gaseous natural gas decreased by 13.4%; televisions of all kinds down 10.3%; urea fertilizer decreased by 5.2%; crude oil fell by 5.9%; clean coal decreased by 2.8%.
For 19 provinces and cities directly under the Central Government in the South implementing social distancing according to Directive No. 16/CT-TTg to prevent and control the Covid-19 epidemic, there are 7 localities with a decrease in the IIP index in July compared to the previous year. same period last year include: Ho Chi Minh City down 19.4%; Long An down 14.6%; Ca Mau decreased by 13.7%; Dong Thap down 5.7%; Tra Vinh down 5.3%; Ba Ria – Vung Tau down 1.9%; Ben Tre fell 0.2%. However, some localities have an increase in IIP index because some industrial parks are determined not to break the supply chain, ensuring disease prevention requirements with option 3 in place, so they are allowed to operate to continue. to fulfill previously contracted production orders.
Notably, Bac Ninh and Bac Giang provinces have basically controlled and controlled the epidemic, and production activities in industrial zones have gradually recovered. The growth rate of the IIP index in May, June and July compared to the same period last year of the two provinces of Bac Giang and Bac Ninh were respectively: Bac Giang in May decreased by 26.7%; June down 49.8% and July 15.3%; Bac Ninh increased by 23.9%; down 8.6% and up 1.1%.
Hanoi city started implementing social distancing from July 24, 2021, the IIP index of July 2021 increased by 7.8% over the same period last year.
Import and export maintain growth rate
In the context of the Covid-19 epidemic continuing to have complicated developments, spreading to many provinces and cities across the country, especially in Ho Chi Minh City – the economic locomotive of the country and many provinces. In the southern region, import and export activities in July are somewhat slowing down. However, in the first 7 months of 2021, import and export still maintained a high growth rate compared to the same period last year.
Total import and export turnover of goods in July 2021 was estimated at 55.7 billion USD, up 1.5% over the previous month. However, in the first 7 months of 2021, the total estimated import and export turnover of goods is still high, reaching 373.36 billion USD, up 30.2% over the same period last year, of which exports reached $185.33 billion, up 25.5%; imports reached $188.03 billion, up 35.3%, specifically:
Merchandise export turnover in July 2021 was estimated at 27 billion USD, down 0.8% over the previous month, of which the domestic economic sector gained 7.49 billion USD, down 3.2%; FDI sector (including crude oil) reached 19.51 billion USD, up 0.2%.
Compared to the same period last year, the export turnover of goods in July increased by 8.4%, of which the domestic economic sector increased by 2.2%, the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) increased by 2.2%. 11%.
In general, for the first seven months of 2021, export turnover of goods was estimated at US$185.33 billion, up 25.5% over the same period last year, of which the domestic economic sector gained US$48.52 billion, up 14.6%, accounting for 26.2% of total export turnover; FDI sector (including crude oil) reached 136.81 billion USD, up 29.9%, accounting for 73.8%.
The United States is Vietnam’s largest export market with a turnover of 53.7 billion USD, up 37.7% over the same period last year. Next is China with 28.8 billion USD, up 24.6%. The EU market reached 22.6 billion USD, up 15.6%. The ASEAN market reached 16.2 billion USD, up 25.8%. Korea reached 11.9 billion USD, up 10.3%. Japan reached 11.8 billion USD, up 8.9%.
Regarding imports, the import turnover of goods in July 2021 was estimated at 28.7 billion USD, up 3.8% over the previous month, of which the domestic economic sector gained 10.3 billion USD, up 3 .3%; FDI sector reached 18.4 billion USD, up 4%. Compared to the same period last year, the import turnover of goods in July increased by 29.9%, of which the domestic economic sector increased by 26.3%; the foreign-invested sector increased by 32.1%.
In general, for the first seven months of 2021, the import turnover of goods was estimated at 188.03 billion USD, up 35.3% over the same period last year, of which the domestic economic sector reached 66.31 billion USD, an increase. 29.8%; FDI sector reached 121.72 billion USD, up 38.5%.
Regarding the import market, China is Vietnam’s largest import market with a turnover of 62.4 billion USD, up 48.8% over the same period last year. Followed by the Korean market reached 29.8 billion USD, up 20.6%. The ASEAN market reached 24.9 billion USD, up 49.6%. Japan reached 12.6 billion USD, up 14.5%. The EU market reached US$ 9.76 billion, up 20.8%. The United States reached 8.97 billion USD, up 10.6%.
Thus, the trade balance of goods in July is estimated to have a trade deficit of 1.7 billion USD. In the first 7 months of 2021, the trade balance of goods has a trade deficit of 2.7 billion USD (the same period last year, the trade surplus is 8.69 billion USD), of which the domestic economic sector has a trade deficit of 17.8 billion USD; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of 15.1 billion USD.
In general, export activities of most commodities and commodity groups in the first 7 months of the year achieved positive growth. However, this growth momentum is somewhat slowing down because the Covid-19 epidemic is negatively affecting production and business activities of enterprises. In the coming time, import and export growth will depend greatly on disease control as well as accelerating the vaccination process in the country.
The domestic market is complicated
The Covid-19 epidemic continues to develop complicatedly across the country, negatively affecting commercial and service activities when many southern provinces and cities and Hanoi implement social distancing in accordance with Directive No. 16/CT. – TTg.
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in July was estimated at 339.4 trillion dong, down 8.3% from the previous month and down 19.8% over the same period last year, of which: Retail sales of goods reached VND 291.8 trillion, down 5.5% and down 11.4%; revenue from accommodation and food services reached VND 21.2 trillion, down 22.4% and down 53.8%; tourism revenue reached 133 billion dong, down 4.8% and down 92.6%; other service revenue reached 26.3 trillion dong, down 22.4% and down 43%.
In the first 7 months of 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services reached VND 2,791.3 trillion, up 0.7% over the same period last year (decreased by 0.5% in the same period in 2020). , if excluding the price factor, it decreased by 0.74% (the same period in 2020 it decreased by 5.20%).
By industry, retail sales of goods in the first seven months of 2021 were estimated at VND 2,269.7 trillion, accounting for 81.3% of the total and up 3.2% over the same period last year. This is the only industry with positive growth in the first 7 months of 2021. Revenue from accommodation and food services in the first 7 months of 2021 is estimated at 243.6 trillion dong, accounting for 8.7% of the total and down 11 .8% compared to the same period last year (the same period in 2020 decreased by 18.9%). Tourism revenue in the first 7 months of 2021 is estimated at 4.5 trillion VND, accounting for 0.2% of the total and down 58.8% over the same period last year. Other service revenue was estimated at VND 273.5 trillion, accounting for 9.8% of the total and down 4.2% over the same period in 2020.
Recently, following the direction of the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has regularly coordinated with ministries, branches and localities to direct and guide issues related to the circulation of essential goods. , aiming to avoid breaking or breaking the production chain in all circumstances, providing essential goods to serve people, especially people in epidemic areas.
In order to facilitate the circulation of goods, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has written a proposal to the Prime Minister to allow the circulation of goods under normal conditions, with conditions to ensure the prevention and control of the Covid-19 epidemic. 19, except for goods banned from business or goods restricted from trading as prescribed in Appendix I, Part A on the List of goods and services banned from business and Appendix II, Part A on the List of goods , business restricted services promulgated together with Document No. 19/VBHN-BCT dated May 9, 2014 issued by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, consolidating Decree No. 59/2006/ND-CP dated June 12, 2006 of the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The Government guides the implementation of the Commercial Law on goods and services banned from business, restricted from business and subject to conditional business and Decrees amending Decree No. 59/2006/ND-CP (except for goods approved by the Prime Minister).
Solutions in the last months of the year
The world economy is forecasted to continue to prosper, but risks and challenges still exist. In the country, difficulties, challenges and risks are still many, especially when the situation of the Covid-19 epidemic is complicated, directly affecting the production and business of enterprises in the Southeast and Southeast regions. Mekong Delta. The tourist season has passed, affecting the consumer demand stimulus programs. The task of achieving the growth target for the whole year 2021 is very challenging, requiring all levels and sectors to make efforts and have appropriate solutions.
Accordingly, businesses, Departments of Industry and Trade and affiliated units focus on seriously implementing Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 1, 2021 of the Government on the main tasks and solutions to implement. implementing the socio-economic development plan and the state budget estimate in 2021; Resolution No. 02/NQ-CP dated January 1, 2021 of the Government on continuing to perform the main tasks and solutions to improve the business environment and enhance national competitiveness in 2021; Action plan of the Industry and Trade sector to implement Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP, Resolution No. 02/NQ-CP issued in Decision No. 163/QD-BCT; Decision No. 164/QD-BCT dated January 19, 2021; In the coming time, we will continue to focus on some main contents, which are:
Thoroughly grasp and organize the implementation of strictly and fully epidemic prevention and control measures under the guidance of the Ministry of Health; strictly implement 5K requirements, especially wearing masks; resolutely and strictly handle organizations and individuals that violate epidemic prevention and control work. Actively develop anti-epidemic plans, ready to respond to any possible epidemic situations;
Focus on implementing the Decision No. 1612/QD-BCT dated June 23, 2021 on the Action Program of the Industry and Trade sector to implement the Government’s Resolution No. 50/NQ-CP dated May 20, 2021 on the the Government’s action plan to implement the Resolution of the 13th National Party Congress. Well perform the socio-economic development tasks with the best efforts to complete the goals and tasks set out for the Industry and Trade sector in 2021;
Closely monitor supply and demand movements, prices of essential commodities to take timely regulatory measures, ensure reasonable distribution of goods between regions, stabilize supply and demand – prices and circulation of goods on the world market. nationwide area. Stepping up the prevention of smuggling, trade fraud, counterfeit goods, imitation goods and poor quality goods, contributing to protecting production, business and domestic consumption.
Advise and coordinate with relevant ministries and branches to implement measures to support goods circulation, ensuring the smooth circulation of means of goods transport serving the people’s consumption and production needs. in accordance with the direction of the Prime Minister in Directive No. 16/CT-TTg dated March 31, 2020 of the implementation of urgent measures to prevent and control the Covid-19 epidemic, minimize the backlog goods in general and agricultural products in particular in circulation. At the same time, coordinate with the local Departments of Industry and Trade to closely monitor market developments, take measures to handle or recommend directions to handle market instability, especially a number of agricultural and food products. essential products and coordination between localities when needed;
Strengthen promotion activities, connect manufacturers, suppliers with distributors, domestic trade promotion organizations in localities. Support and urge associations, industries and businesses to remove difficulties, effectively carry out trade promotion activities, promote products and categories, seek to expand the domestic market, to quickly promote the consumption of agricultural products with large outputs already in season or about to be harvested in the localities;
Guide e-commerce trading floors to facilitate sellers and traders of agricultural products to join the floor, train skills and operate online business activities; shipping support; online payment; supporting and prioritizing agribusiness traders to participate in Online Shopping Day Programs; National online Vietnamese pavilion…
Directing market management forces in localities to focus on implementing market inspection and supervision plans, peak plans; promptly detect and strictly handle violations of the law on prices, acts of speculation, hoarding and taking advantage of epidemics to gain illicit profits; trading in smuggled agricultural products, counterfeit goods, poor quality goods, not ensuring food safety, disease safety and other commercial frauds.
Promoting exports, curbing trade deficit. Organizing to exploit and take advantage of opportunities from FTAs to find solutions to develop markets and remove barriers to penetrate new markets. Consolidate and expand export markets, taking full advantage of the effective Free Trade Agreements (FTAs); diversify export and import markets; Diversify the structure of export products, improve the competitiveness of export products, develop brands;
Ensuring energy security and electricity supply security; operate the national electricity system to ensure efficiency, safety, publicity, transparency and harmonize the interests of the state, businesses and people;
Continue to promote administrative reform, especially administrative procedure reform, reduce business investment conditions in the direction of reviewing licensing procedures and processes, and maximize licensing. online ensures simplicity, publicity and transparency; step up the application of information technology, make inter-connection of information systems and databases to serve the direction and administration of the Government.