According to the Department of Import and Export (Ministry of Industry and Trade), citing data from the General Department of Customs, in March 2023, Vietnam exported 210.37 thousand tons of coffee, valued at 482.43 million USD, an increase of 5.2% in volume and 10.9% in value compared to the previous month. Compared with the same period in 2022, coffee exports in March fell by 0.3% in volume but rose by 1.7% in value. Thus, by the end of the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam’s total coffee exports reached 552.61 thousand tons, worth approximately 1.23 billion USD.
Notably, in March 2023, exports to markets such as Belgium, Japan, and the Netherlands decreased compared to the same period last year. However, Russia emerged as a bright spot for Vietnam’s coffee exports. Specifically, coffee exports to Russia in March reached 13,271 tons, valued at 30.7 million USD, a sharp increase of 418% year-on-year. Overall, in the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam’s coffee exports to Moscow reached 33,091 tons, up 82.9% compared to the same period in 2022.
The strong increase can be attributed to the Russia–Ukraine conflict that erupted in early 2022, which caused a significant decline in Russia’s overall imports. The market gradually stabilized later in the year. By the end of 2022, Vietnam’s coffee exports to Russia reached 103,531 tons, worth 249.4 million USD, up 26.54% in volume and 44% in value compared with 2021.
In Russia, tea and coffee consumption has increased remarkably over the past 30 years. On average, Russians drink about 300 cups of coffee per year, equivalent to 60 liters per person, according to data from Stir.
Russians have a special affection for Vietnamese coffee. As of 2021, before the outbreak of the conflict, total coffee consumption in Russia reached 303,000 tons, while the majority of this volume—243,639 tons—came from imports worth 787.58 million USD. Among these, Vietnam was Russia’s largest coffee supplier, exporting 81,818 tons worth more than 173 million USD in 2021.
Regarding the outlook for Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2023, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported in March that global coffee exports in February were only 8.9 million bags, a decrease of 18% year-on-year. In the first five months of the 2022–2023 crop year (October 2022–February 2023), global coffee exports fell 8.7% to 48.7 million bags.
At the same time, ICO estimated that global coffee supply for the 2022–2023 crop year would reach 171.3 million bags, while consumption was expected to hit 178.5 million bags. Based on this projection, the global coffee market could face a deficit of 7.3 million bags in the current crop year.
Additionally, the report forecast that global Arabica production would rise about 4.6% to 98.6 million bags, while Robusta production would decline 2.1% to 72.7 million bags.
These international market factors are expected to drive coffee prices upward in 2023. In March, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee increased 5.5% from the previous month and 1.9% year-on-year, reaching 2,293 USD per ton.