On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a sweeping package of “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from more than 100 countries. Vietnam was placed among the highest-taxed group, facing a 46% tariff, alongside China, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Myanmar. Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) faces an average rate of 20%.
These tariffs—expected to take effect next week—have already triggered widespread disruptions across the global trade system.
While Washington aims to reshore manufacturing and “revive American industry,” economists warn of an impending global trade war, likely to bring about slower growth, inflationary pressure, and new supply chain instability.
I. Global Economic Impact: Recession, Inflation, and Supply Chain Disruptions
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1. Weaker U.S. Dollar and Market Volatility
Immediately after the announcement, the U.S. dollar plunged as markets reacted to fears that the new tariff policy could slow U.S. growth.
Global financial markets turned turbulent:
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Sharp declines across major stock exchanges in Asia, the U.S., and Europe.
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Capital flight toward safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds.
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Investors delaying spending and investment amid heightened uncertainty.
Although a weaker USD may reduce import costs for raw materials, Vietnamese firms can only benefit if they manage cost structures effectively and protect profit margins.
According to Yardeni Research, both businesses and consumers are increasingly cautious, reflecting declining confidence in trade policy stability—particularly given President Trump’s continued use of tariffs as a negotiation weapon.
2. Rising Global Recession and Inflation Risks
A Goldman Sachs report raised the probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months from 20% to 35%, driven by tariffs, price escalation, and lower consumer confidence.
The U.S. now faces its highest effective tariff rate since the 1940s, which could lead to:
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Core inflation reaching 2.3% in 2025.
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Significant drops in consumer spending and import demand.
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Retaliatory tariffs from major trade partners (EU, China, Japan), threatening further supply chain fragmentation.
Kara Reynolds, a U.S. economist, warned:
“The lack of transparency in trade policy fosters defensive behavior among businesses and consumers, creating a negative spiral — less spending, less investment, and less production.”
ICC Chairman Philippe Varin cautioned that this tariff escalation could have three times the impact of the 1930s Smoot–Hawley crisis if the share of taxed U.S. imports rises from 31% to 90%.
3. Impacts on the EU and the Nordic Adjustment
With U.S. tariffs on EU goods increasing from 7% to 20%, Goldman Sachs estimates that Eurozone GDP could shrink by 0.7% by end-2026. A tit-for-tat response could even push Europe into a technical recession in 2026 if tariffs exceed 40%.
Interestingly, the Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank) raised its USD reserve ratio from 62% to 70%, signaling long-term confidence in U.S. assets despite short-term volatility. This demonstrates that the Nordic region remains committed to diversified trade while maintaining ties with the U.S.—an important insight for Vietnamese exporters exploring these markets.
4. The Risk of a Full-Scale Trade War
Fitch Ratings and other institutions warn that simultaneous retaliation could push the world into a broad-based downturn, characterized by:
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Higher production costs due to new tariffs and technical barriers.
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Severe global supply chain disruptions.
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Declining international investment confidence.
Global trade, still fragile after the pandemic and the energy crisis, now faces another systemic shock from U.S. protectionism.
II. Impact on Vietnamese Exports to the EU and Nordic Region: New Pressures and Strategic Shifts
As global trade patterns shift, Vietnamese exporters must rethink their strategies toward the EU and Nordic markets—regions that combine high purchasing power with favorable trade frameworks under the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA).
1. Vietnamese Goods Becoming Less Competitive in the Nordics
With the U.S. dollar weakening and the Swedish krona strengthening (9.85 SEK/USD, the highest since June 2022), Vietnamese goods priced in USD are becoming more expensive in Nordic markets.
Sectors most affected include:
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Textiles and apparel
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Footwear and leather
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Seafood products
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Wood and handicrafts
These industries, already operating on thin margins, are highly vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and consumer demand slowdowns amid inflation in Northern Europe.
2. Intensified Competition from Other Asian Exporters
As access to the U.S. market tightens, Asian producers are pivoting to Europe and the Nordics—regions still open to trade and consumption:
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China may increase exports of electronics and home appliances.
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Bangladesh and Cambodia, key competitors in garments, will likely push low-cost goods into the EU.
Competition will not only be on price, but also speed, flexibility, and compliance with strict European standards.
3. EVFTA: Vietnam’s Strategic Shield Amid Protectionism
Amid global tariff turbulence, the EVFTA serves as Vietnam’s strategic trade shield, maintaining preferential access to Europe.
Benefiting sectors include:
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Textiles, footwear
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Processed seafood and agricultural products
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Wood, handicrafts
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Electrical and electronic components
In the Nordic markets, where consumers prioritize sustainability, traceability, and eco-certification, Vietnamese exporters can gain a decisive advantage through compliance with eco-labels, carbon footprint tracking, and sustainable sourcing.
4. Opportunity for Market Diversification and Value Chain Repositioning
While the U.S. tariffs present short-term challenges, they also open long-term opportunities for Vietnam to:
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Diversify export markets and reduce dependence on the U.S.
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Shift from low-cost to quality-driven, sustainable, and traceable production.
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Invest in European standards such as eco-labels, CSR certifications, and carbon neutrality verification.
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Leverage EVFTA to position Vietnamese goods as reliable global supply chain alternatives.
Conclusion: Turning Challenges into Strategic Positioning
The U.S. countervailing tariff policy represents a systemic global shock that could deepen worldwide recession and disrupt trade. While major economies debate their responses, Vietnamese enterprises must act proactively.
The EU and Nordic region, with political stability and favorable frameworks under EVFTA, are emerging as strategic gateways for Vietnam’s exports.