Vietnamese rice has carved out its own market position in major destinations such as the Philippines and China. With the One Million Hectares Project, it is expected to expand further into premium markets like Japan and South Korea.
India Releases Rice Reserves — How Will the Market React?
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According to international media, on July 31, the Indian government announced the release of 20 million tons of rice from its national reserves. Of this amount, 2.5 million tons are 25% broken rice and 5 million tons are 10% broken rice, to be sold to private firms and cooperatives through e-auctions. Additionally, 3.6 million tons will be sold to state governments at USD 257 per ton, while 5.2 million tons will go to ethanol distilleries.
In response, by early August, Thai rice exporters lowered their offer prices by USD 10–15 per ton compared to the previous week. Rice prices in Pakistan and India also fell. This created downward pressure on global rice markets as exporters cut prices to stay competitive.
However, at the start of this week, Vietnam’s rice export prices increased by an average of USD 10 per ton compared to the previous week. In particular, fragrant rice varieties were trading between USD 510–517 per ton. Exporters attributed this price rise to Philippine importers rushing to buy rice before September 1, the start of a 60-day import suspension. The Philippines’ rice demand is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks.
“The One Million Hectares Project is a ‘super raw material zone’ that is being effectively implemented. Its goal is to access high-value export markets by ensuring superior quality in rice-growing regions while keeping production costs low to benefit both enterprises and farmers.”
— Bùi Bá Bổng, Chairman, Vietnam Rice Industry Association (VIETRISA)
Vietnamese Rice Holds Its Ground
Phạm Thái Bình, Chairman of the Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company (Cần Thơ), analyzed: “Since late 2024, global supply has been increasing continuously, leading to a steady decline in both global and Vietnamese rice prices. With India’s latest move, prices may continue to fall, and in the medium term, it will be difficult for prices to return to their previous highs. However, in the long term, agriculture remains unpredictable due to weather — and climate change is making it more erratic than ever.”
“Vietnam has a solid foothold in major markets such as the Philippines, Africa, and China. The Philippines is only temporarily suspending imports for 60 days, not shutting the market entirely. Meanwhile, the summer–autumn crop in the Mekong Delta is ending soon, so we face no inventory pressure. The autumn–winter crop, or the third season, usually yields only 50–60% of the main crop (winter–spring). Therefore, from now until year-end, we have no major stockpiling issue,”
Mr. Bình explained.
According to him, India’s stock release is not a major concern because its rice targets a different market segment than Vietnam’s. Still, increased global supply will gradually pull down world rice prices and create a new, lower price baseline.
Vietnamese Rice Creates Its Own Market Space
Đỗ Hà Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), acknowledged that the global rice market is currently oversupplied. Thailand, which has long held the No. 2 exporter position, is facing significant difficulties, with export volume down 30% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s exports continue to rise, reaching over 5.5 million tons to date.
“Vietnamese rice remains in short supply because we have built our own market niche through rice varieties such as ĐT, OM, and especially the ST series. We project exports for 2025 to reach at least 8 million tons, marking the first time Vietnam will firmly hold the second-largest exporter position globally. Although the average export price of USD 514 per ton is lower than in previous years, it remains higher than that of other countries,”
Mr. Nam confirmed.
He added that Vietnam’s rice exports to African nations reached over 1 million tons by the end of June — a notable achievement, as these markets usually pause purchases by this time of year. However, he cautioned that this market still carries risks in demand and payment methods.
“To develop the rice sector sustainably, we must strengthen exports to high-value, stable markets such as Japan, South Korea, and the EU. For Vietnamese rice to access these markets, government-level coordination is essential. Our confidence comes from the fact that we have already established large-scale, high-quality cultivation zones under the One Million Hectares Project,”
Mr. Nam emphasized.
Bùi Bá Bổng, Chairman of VIETRISA, reiterated that the One Million Hectares Project is an effective “super zone” program.
“Its purpose is to reach high-value export markets through superior quality and lower production costs, ensuring profitability for both enterprises and farmers,” he said.
Agricultural Sector Targets USD 100 Billion
On August 12 in Ho Chi Minh City, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MARD) held a conference on “Promoting Agricultural, Forestry, and Fishery Exports in 2025.”
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Nguyễn Minh Hằng stated that export activities in the coming months will face many challenges. As global supply chains diversify, Vietnam must conduct careful assessments and adopt adaptive strategies.
Although global food price indexes have risen recently, rice prices continue to decline and are expected to remain low for the next 1–2 years. Moreover, several countries may restrict exports or suddenly impose quotas, making global markets unpredictable. Therefore, Vietnam must diversify export markets while optimizing existing ones and prepare adaptive tax policies.
Acting Minister of Agriculture and Environment Trần Đức Thắng emphasized:
“Despite significant challenges in the remaining five months of the year, we are determined to achieve overall agricultural growth of over 4%, with total export revenue surpassing USD 65 billion, striving toward USD 70 billion. In the coming years, Vietnam’s agricultural sector aims to reach USD 100 billion in exports by 2030, aligning with the country’s broader growth targets for 2026–2030.”
He added:
“To ensure rapid and sustainable agricultural development, the Ministry will propose amendments to 15 laws in October and, starting from 2026, comprehensively revise 17 legal documents to adapt to new realities. These updates will provide a stronger legal framework to resolve challenges for farmers, businesses, and trade associations while standardizing agricultural production practices.”