Vietnam’s Coffee Exports Targeting Record $8-10 Billion
Vietnam’s Robusta coffee prices are seeing a significant increase, with the average export price rising to over $5,600 per ton in the first three months of 2025, a 73% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
According to data from Vietnam’s Customs Department, from the beginning of the year to March 15, 2025, Vietnam exported 406,637 tons of coffee, earning $2.28 billion, a 41% increase in value despite an 18% decrease in volume compared to the same period in 2024.
In the first two months of 2025, Germany was the largest export market, with $278 million (up 79%); Italy ranked second with $171 million (up 31%); followed by Japan at $127 million (up 56%); the United States at $120 million (up 53%); and Spain at $117 million (up 29%).
Coffee Export Prices Surge
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) estimates that coffee exports in the first quarter of 2025 will reach around $2.8 billion. If this price level continues throughout the remaining three quarters, the total for the year could set a record of $8 billion.
The surge in coffee export revenue is primarily attributed to a 73% price increase, from $3,228 per ton in Q1 2024 to $5,614 per ton in Q1 2025. From 2010 to 2023, Vietnam’s average coffee export price was typically around $2,000 per ton. However, since early 2024, prices have been rising steadily, even experiencing some sharp increases.
In 2024, Vietnam exported 1.34 million tons of coffee, achieving a record high export value of $5.62 billion. The average export price for coffee in 2024 also set a record of $4,177 per ton, up 59% from $2,613 per ton in 2023.
By mid-March 2025, the average coffee export price from Vietnam continued to rise, reaching $5,798 per ton. At this rate, the $6,000 per ton milestone may soon be reached.
Domestically, for nearly two decades, Robusta coffee farmers in the Central Highlands sold their product at around 40 million VND per ton. However, over the past two years, prices have increased 3.5 times, with farmers now selling at about 134 million VND per ton.
The sharp rise in coffee prices is largely due to concerns that the U.S. government may increase tariffs on coffee imports from Latin America. As a result, traders in the U.S. are increasing their imports to stock up before potential tariff hikes. The U.S. National Coffee Association (NCA) predicts that if the U.S. imposes higher tariffs on coffee from Brazil and other North American countries, coffee prices in the U.S. market will continue to soar.
Many analyses suggest that the high coffee prices are driven by a decrease in exports from the world’s two largest coffee producers: Brazil and Vietnam. The price of Brazil’s Arabica coffee has reached record highs of $8,600-8,800 per ton.
Supply Shortages Drive Price Increase
According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe), Brazil’s coffee exports in February 2025 decreased by 12% compared to February 2024, falling to 3 million bags. The Brazilian government’s crop forecasting agency (Conab) has also predicted a 4.4% decrease in Brazil’s coffee production for the 2025/26 season, the lowest in three years, due to the impact of El Nino in 2024, which could cause long-term damage to coffee production in Central and South America.
In the first 15 days of March 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 93,898 tons, generating $545 million in revenue, a 54.2% increase in value, despite a 7.4% decrease in volume compared to the first half of March 2024.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations reported in mid-March 2025 that the current record-high coffee prices are not due to inflation adjustments but are primarily driven by climate change affecting coffee production. The world is also concerned about the declining coffee output in Vietnam. In fact, in the first two months of 2025, Vietnam’s coffee export volume decreased by 14.8% compared to the same period in 2024.
Vicofa explained that about two years ago, due to low prices and high investment costs, many farmers abandoned coffee cultivation in favor of other crops like durian, macadamia, and passion fruit, leading to a reduction in both the area of coffee farms and coffee production. Additionally, El Nino weather patterns have caused continuous declines in Vietnam’s coffee yield over the last four years, contributing to lower export volumes.
Adapting to the EU’s EUDR Regulations
Currently, the European Union (EU) is Vietnam’s largest coffee export market, accounting for 41% of the country’s coffee exports. However, the EU has introduced new regulations under the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which, effective December 30, 2024, requires products such as coffee, rubber, wood, and cocoa to prove they were not linked to deforestation after December 31, 2020, in order to enter the EU market. Companies that violate this regulation will face fines of up to 4% of their revenue and could be excluded from the EU market. The EU has extended the implementation of EUDR for large companies until December 30, 2025, and for smaller companies until June 30, 2026.
In response to this regulation, Thai Anh Tuan, CEO of Simexco Daklak, stated that complying with EUDR will increase production costs. To meet EUDR requirements, large coffee-growing regions need to create digital maps that track the origin of coffee down to individual farmers.
Due to the low number of companies complying with EUDR, while Europe remains the most important market for Vietnamese coffee, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has launched a pilot system for coffee-growing area data in four districts in Vietnam: Krông Năng, Cư M’gar, Ea H’leo in Dak Lak Province, and Di Linh in Lam Dong Province. To date, 100% of coffee-growing areas in these regions have been updated into the data system, ensuring compliance with EUDR and providing a transparent foundation for sustainable development in the future.
Transforming for Sustainable Growth in Coffee Industry
Turning back to the issue of coffee prices, Vicofa notes that while the factors driving the sharp rise in coffee prices are largely external and unsustainable, they are unlikely to maintain high prices in the long term. To ensure the sustainable development of Vietnam’s coffee sector and achieve an export target of $10 billion in the future, proactive and leadership-driven initiatives are needed.
Long-term development of Vietnam’s coffee sector should align with government plans to maintain coffee cultivation areas at around 640,000 to 660,000 hectares, with 20-25% of the total coffee production being processed into higher-value products.
Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of Vicofa, emphasized that Vietnam’s coffee industry is still focused mainly on raw coffee exports, which does not fully reflect its potential.
To address this, the coffee sector needs to focus on improving quality, developing specialty coffees, and classifying coffee into various grades such as premium and standard. Furthermore, Vietnam needs to promote the national coffee brand, with businesses investing in marketing and building a strong brand image to solidify the position of Vietnamese coffee in the global market.
According to Mr. Hai, the current high coffee prices represent a significant opportunity to accelerate the transition from quantity to quality, from raw exports to processed coffee products. Focusing on the deep development of Vietnam’s coffee industry, coupled with technology application, will enhance the added value of coffee exports. Additionally, profits should be more evenly distributed among all participants in the supply chain.