On April 2, 2025, the United States officially imposed large-scale countervailing tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries, with Vietnam facing a 46% tariff rate.
This unprecedented increase poses serious challenges for Vietnam’s major export sectors.
I. Export Sectors Affected by U.S. Countervailing Tariffs
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1. Textiles and Footwear – the hardest hit sectors
The U.S. remains Vietnam’s largest textile export market, accounting for 21.9% of Vietnam’s total exports to the U.S. in 2024. With the new tariff rate, exporters’ profit margins are being severely eroded, pushing many FOB contracts into losses and forcing U.S. buyers to seek alternative suppliers.
2. Wood and Furniture Products
This sector faces a double blow — not only from tariffs but also from ongoing investigations into origin evasion. As the U.S. market accounts for the majority of export turnover, many Vietnamese manufacturers risk downsizing or shutdowns due to market loss.
3. Seafood (Shrimp and Pangasius)
Already struggling with technical barriers, the imposition of higher tariffs has made Vietnamese seafood prices uncompetitive, leading to a steep decline in U.S. orders.
4. Electronics and Components
Accounting for 28.6% of Vietnam’s total exports to the U.S., this sector — dominated by FDI enterprises — also faces risks. Losing tariff advantages could push Vietnam out of the supply chains of major tech giants like Apple and Samsung.
II. Shifting Exports Toward Northern Europe: Conditional Opportunities
A short-term logical response is to diversify toward the EU, particularly Northern Europe.
While smaller in scale, this market offers long-term strategic potential thanks to its stability, high sustainability standards, and benefits from the EVFTA.
Instead of competing on price, Vietnamese exporters should move up the value chain — focusing on sustainable, high-value products aligned with Europe’s green consumer trends.
1. High-end, Sustainable Textiles and Footwear
The EU — especially Northern Europe — prioritizes eco-friendly, traceable fashion with fair labor standards.
Brands like H&M and Lindex seek suppliers certified under GOTS, OEKO-TEX, or SA8000.
Vietnam must reposition itself not as a low-cost manufacturer but as a sustainable partner for global brands.
2. Green and Smart Furniture
Northern European consumers value Scandinavian minimalism and certified materials (FSC).
Vietnam can leverage recycled or composite wood (rubberwood, bamboo, veneer panels) and innovate with smart furniture — e.g., wireless-charging desks, sensor-integrated lighting, or IoT-connected workstations.
This aligns with the region’s “smart home” trend and offers higher profit margins.
Vietnamese firms could also shift toward OEM/ODM partnerships with brands like IKEA or JYSK.
3. Deep-Processed Seafood
Northern Europe favors ready-to-eat seafood such as cooked shrimp, frozen fillets, and packaged products.
Major distributors like Coop and ICA require ASC or GlobalG.A.P. certification.
Vietnamese processors should invest in deep processing, eco-packaging, and traceability systems to meet strict standards.
4. Plant-Based and Organic Foods
With rising vegan and eco-conscious consumption, Vietnam can exploit its raw material strengths — cashews, lotus seeds, specialty coffee, tropical fruits — to produce freeze-dried snacks, organic juices, and plant-based convenience foods.
Compliance with EU Organic, HACCP, and eco-packaging standards is essential for market entry.
5. Electronics and Green Tech Components
Vietnam could expand exports of components for renewable energy, smart agriculture, and energy storage to Europe.
Northern Europe’s strong green transition policies present opportunities for Vietnamese firms in the green technology supply chain.
III. Key Challenges in Entering the Northern European Market
1. Fierce competition
Countries like Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, and India are also redirecting exports to the EU.
With EU’s GSP scheme removing tariffs for least-developed countries, Vietnam loses part of its price advantage.
2. High compliance costs
EU regulations such as REACH, CBAM, EUDR, and CS3D demand heavy investment in supply chain management and carbon reporting — a significant burden for small and medium-sized Vietnamese enterprises.
3. Cultural and consumer differences
European consumers prefer ethical, traceable, and story-driven products with minimalist packaging and moderate flavor, rather than low-cost mass-market goods.
IV. Strategic Vision: From Market Shift to Role Transformation
In a fragmented global trade landscape, Vietnam must not only shift markets but also redefine its role in global value chains. Three strategic directions stand out:
1. Becoming a Neutral Manufacturing Hub
Vietnam can act as a neutral production base amid escalating U.S.–China–EU trade tensions.
By attracting FDI from Europe, Japan, and South Korea and improving logistics infrastructure (e.g., new MSC shipping routes connecting Gothenburg – Aarhus – Vung Tau), Vietnam can strengthen its position as a regional transshipment and manufacturing hub.
2. Supplying Intermediate Materials
Vietnamese firms should move toward intermediate exports — textiles, wooden panels, semi-finished components — for factories in Poland, Romania, Turkey, and India.
This approach helps retain orders, lower marketing costs, and bypass consumption habit barriers.
Projects like Syre (Sweden) investing in recycled fabric production in Vietnam illustrate this new direction.
3. Integrating ESG into Global Supply Chains
With the EU tightening environmental and social governance standards (ESG, CBAM, EUDR, CS3D), Vietnam can become a trusted ESG-compliant partner.
By enhancing supply chain transparency, blockchain-based traceability, and achieving international ESG certifications, Vietnamese businesses can move up the global value chain sustainably.
Conclusion
The U.S. countervailing tariff shock serves as a wake-up call for Vietnam’s export dependency.
While shifting toward Europe — especially Northern Europe — is necessary, it is not sufficient.
Vietnam must adopt a comprehensive strategy:
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Reposition in global supply chains,
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Leverage ESG and FDI inflows, and
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Build capacity to meet global standards.
Only through this structural transformation can Vietnam not merely survive the crisis, but gain a long-term competitive edge in the new global trade order.