Vietnam’s Import-Export Outlook 2025–2030: Opportunities from FTAs and the Challenge of Competitiveness

Vietnam’s import-export sector is entering a critical phase, filled with new opportunities from free trade agreements (FTAs) while facing rising challenges in strengthening competitiveness and meeting international standards.


FTAs: A Launchpad for Vietnam’s Exports or a Hidden Challenge?

In the context of global economic integration, major FTAs such as the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have opened new horizons for Vietnam’s economy.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), these agreements not only boost exports but also attract foreign investment (FDI), promote institutional reform, and enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises.

Thanks to EVFTA, many of Vietnam’s key exports — including textiles, footwear, seafood, and agricultural products— have gained better access to European markets with preferential tariffs. In 2024, Vietnam’s agricultural exports to the EU reached nearly USD 7 billion, up 15% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, CPTPP has enabled Vietnam to enter new markets such as Canada, Mexico, and Peru, while RCEP facilitates trade with China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN.

However, data from MOIT shows that the EVFTA tariff preference utilization rate, although improving, remains modest at 35.2% in 2023.
This is largely due to limited understanding of FTA commitments and challenges in meeting rules of origin, reflecting gaps in trade policy awareness and integration readiness among Vietnamese businesses.


Technical Barriers and Regional Competition

While FTAs offer great benefits, they also come with strict technical and sustainability standards.
The EU enforces rigorous requirements on origin, plant quarantine, and labor practices, while the U.S. frequently adjusts its trade policies, putting pressure on Vietnam’s seafood and agricultural exports.

For example, in 2024, several shipments of Vietnamese shrimp were flagged for quarantine issues in the EU, causing export disruptions and financial losses.
Similarly, the textile industry faces obstacles under CPTPP’s yarn-forward rule, as Vietnam still depends heavily on raw materials from China.

Competition is also intensifying from regional exporters like Thailand, Indonesia, and India, which are offering strong government support to their export sectors — putting Vietnamese goods under pricing and quality pressure.


Opportunities Exist — But Not for the Unprepared

Some leading Vietnamese companies are adapting effectively.
For instance, Minh Phu Seafood Corporation, one of Vietnam’s largest seafood exporters, has implemented a strict quality control system meeting both EU and U.S. standards.

In the textile industry, the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) reports that more firms are developing domestic supply chains to meet CPTPP origin requirements. Consequently, CPTPP utilization in the sector rose from 17% in 2022 to 28% in 2024.

However, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) still struggle with limited access to policy information, financing, and technology. Without strategic adaptation, many risk becoming mere bystanders in global trade.

To remain competitive, businesses must invest in technology, quality improvement, and brand building, while developing skilled human resources and expanding distribution channels.


The Role of Policy and Government Support

The Ministry of Industry and Trade should strengthen training programs on rules of origin, technical standards, and market insights, while expanding preferential credit policies to help businesses upgrade production capacity.

Economists also emphasize that the Government must continue negotiating new trade incentives, enhancing logistics infrastructure, and providing timely market research.

Most recently, under Resolution No. 192/2025/QH15, Vietnam’s National Assembly set a GDP growth target of 8% or higher for 2025.
The resolution calls for expanding economic diplomacy, leveraging 17 existing FTAs, and exploring new partnerships with the Middle East, Switzerland, Norway, and Finland.

This strategy aims to diversify markets — particularly in Halal, Latin American, and African regions — and promote exports not only in goods but also in services such as finance, logistics, and maritime transport.