In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam exported 4.5 million tons of rice, an increase of 12.2% compared to the same period in 2024. Total exports for the year are forecast to reach about 7.9 million tons, while Thailand’s rice exports are expected to reach only around 7 million tons.
According to the latest data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Vietnam’s 5% broken rice is currently priced at USD 388 per ton, about USD 10 higher than India’s but USD 10 lower than Thailand’s. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s 25% broken rice is selling at USD 362 per ton, USD 18 lower than Thailand’s and USD 5 lower than India’s.
The VFA’s export prices differ significantly from the average export price reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, as the VFA primarily reports on regular rice varieties, while the ministry’s average includes both high-quality and premium rice.
Intense Competition With Thailand and India
As of the end of May 2025, Vietnam had exported 4.5 million tons of rice, earning USD 2.34 billion, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. While export volume rose 12.2%, export value fell 8.9% due to a sharp drop in average prices — USD 516.4 per ton, down 18.7% from 2024.
In May alone, exports reached 1.1 million tons worth USD 573.1 million. Although volume was impressive, falling prices reflected the impact of global supply conditions — especially India’s return to the market.
After a year-long export ban, India lifted restrictions in late 2024, flooding global markets with competitively priced rice. The resulting supply surge has pressured other exporters, including Vietnam. Meanwhile, traditional buyers like the Philippines and Indonesia have slowed purchases after stockpiling reserves in 2024, waiting for lower prices before resuming imports.
The Philippines remained Vietnam’s largest market, accounting for 41.4% of total exports in the first five months of 2025, though export value dropped 21.8% year-on-year. Conversely, exports to Côte d’Ivoire and China surged 2.7 times and 83.7%, respectively.
Among Vietnam’s top 15 export markets, Bangladesh recorded a staggering 515.6-fold increase, while Indonesia plunged 97.9%, illustrating shifting demand and import policies.
Globally, Vietnam remains the second-largest rice exporter, after India. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects Vietnam’s 2025 rice exports at 7.9 million tons, compared with Thailand’s 7 million tons, the lowest in years.
In its latest analysis, USDA noted that Thai rice is losing competitiveness, especially in the Philippine market, where consumers are more price-sensitive. The strong baht and high production costs have pushed Thai rice prices well above Vietnam’s. Meanwhile, India’s ample supply and some nations’ growing food stockpiles are making competition fiercer.
Opportunities in High-End Markets
Despite falling average export prices, Vietnam’s premium rice segment continues to perform well. For example, ST25 rice, once recognized as the world’s best-tasting rice, now sells for up to USD 1,200 per ton in Europe.
Vietnam’s rice sector is undergoing a strategic shift toward high-quality and branded products. Currently, high-quality rice accounts for 60–70% of total exports, branded premium rice makes up around 15%, and the rest is standard-grade rice.
Vietnamese rice is shedding its low-cost image and penetrating demanding markets like Japan, South Korea, the EU, and Canada. The export of 500 tons of low-emission Japonica rice branded “Vietnam Green Rice” by Trung An High-Tech Agriculture JSC to Japan on June 5, 2025, marked a milestone. Priced at USD 850 per ton FOB Ho Chi Minh City, or over USD 1,000 per ton CIF, it rivals Thailand’s premium rice and doubles the price of Vietnam’s traditional aromatic varieties.
Lê Thanh Tùng, Secretary-General of the Vietnam Rice Industry Association (VIETRISA), said Vietnam is proactively investing in premium rice varieties to meet stricter import standards. “Japan imports about 700,000 tons of rice annually, mainly from the U.S. and Thailand. However, this year’s supply shortage presents a golden opportunity for Vietnamese rice,” he noted.
Trương Sỹ Bá, Chairman of Tân Long Group, shared that his company has been exporting AAn-branded rice to Japan for several years — 5,000 tons in 2024 and an expected 30,000 tons in 2025. “Japan is an extremely demanding market, but rice prices there are high, ensuring excellent profitability,” he said.
Beyond Japan, markets such as South Korea, the EU, and Canada are emerging as strategic destinations. In Canada, where over 7 million people of Asian descent live, Vietnamese rice currently holds less than 2% market share, leaving vast room for growth, particularly as free trade agreements lower tariffs and widen access.
In Singapore, which imports 90% of its food, Vietnam ranks third among rice suppliers, behind India and Thailand. Its consistent growth there highlights strong potential to win over even the most discerning consumers in Southeast Asia.
Agriculture expert Hoàng Trọng Thủy noted that Vietnam’s rice industry is shifting away from low-grade rice toward fragrant and high-quality varieties — a strategy that increases export value while reducing vulnerability to price volatility.
However, he cautioned that Vietnam must remain steadfast in improving quality, developing national rice brands, and embracing green, clean, low-emission production to align with emerging international standards and sustain long-term competitiveness.