The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) forecasts that global demand for natural rubber (NR) will continue to recover in 2022 as countries relax COVID-19 restrictions, reopen borders, and resume economic activities. This recovery is expected to support Vietnam’s rubber exports, which already reached record highs in 2021.
Global Rubber Consumption Expected to Rise 4–5%
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According to ANRPC, global rubber consumption in 2022 is projected to increase by 4–5% year-on-year.
Rising crude oil prices have also pushed up the cost of synthetic rubber, as petroleum is a key input material. Consequently, the natural rubber market outlook remains positive, with prices expected to stay at high levels throughout 2022.
Major import markets such as the EU, China, the U.S., and India are forecast to maintain strong demand as their economies gradually recover. For Vietnam, this means promising export prospects, especially in its two largest markets — China and India.
China and India Continue to Drive Demand
China remains the largest importer of Vietnamese rubber, having imported 1.4 million tons worth USD 2.3 billion in 2021.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade reports that China’s domestic supply of natural rubber covers only about 115,000 tons per month, while monthly demand reaches 500,000 tons.
This results in a shortfall of approximately 385,000 tons per month, forcing China to import 1.7 million tons in the last five months of 2021 and an estimated additional 2 million tons from January to April 2022.
India is also emerging as a key growth market. The Rubber Board of India estimates that in 2022, India will produce 800,000 tons but consume 1.24 million tons, creating a supply gap of 440,000 tons.
In 2021, Vietnam’s rubber exports to India reached 119,000 tons, valued at USD 212 million, up 93.9% in volumeand 138.1% in value from 2020.
Record-Breaking Year in 2021 Sets a Strong Foundation
Despite pandemic disruptions, 2021 marked a milestone year for Vietnam’s rubber industry, setting two new records:
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Export volume: 1.955 million tons — the highest in the country’s history.
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Export value: USD 3.278 billion — surpassing the USD 3 billion mark for the first time in a decade.
The average export price reached USD 1,677 per ton, up 23% from 2020, driven by rising global demand. In January 2022, the export price averaged USD 1,718 per ton, showing continued market strength.
The Import-Export Department (MOIT) expects prices to remain firm in the short term as the rubber trees enter their off-tapping season, tightening supply while demand rebounds post-winter.
At the Vietnam International Rubber Conference 2021, Dar Wong, Investment Director of ALA Consulting, predicted that rubber prices would range between USD 2,000–2,100 per ton in Q1 2022, and could rise further to USD 2.1–3.8 per kg for the year.
Global Supply Shortage Likely to Persist Until 2030
Preliminary data from ANRPC shows that in 2021, global natural rubber production was 13.8 million tons, while demand reached over 14 million tons, creating a shortfall of about 200,000 tons.
ANRPC projects this supply deficit will continue through 2028–2031 due to limited expansion in mature rubber plantations among major producers.
This marks a turning point — the end of the prolonged surplus cycle and the beginning of a sustained period of tight supply and rising prices in the global natural rubber market.
Weather and Disease Factors Also Influence Markets
According to the Business and Market Department of VRG (Vietnam Rubber Group), adverse weather conditionsin major producing countries — Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam — combined with leaf fall disease in Thailand and India, have further tightened supply.
These factors are pushing speculators back into the commodity market earlier than expected, reinforcing bullish sentiment for rubber prices in 2022.