Vietnam’s rubber market share in China has steadily increased over the past decade — from just 4.7% in 2014 to over 22% today. Meanwhile, Thailand’s share in the same market has continued to shrink, reflecting a significant shift in regional supply dynamics.
Vietnam Strengthens Position as China’s Key Rubber Supplier
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According to China Customs, the country imported 1.8 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in the first quarter of 2024, valued at USD 2.8 billion — down 12.1% in volume and 6.8% in value year-on-year.
Imports from Thailand, the largest supplier, dropped sharply by 29.6%, totaling 588,265 tons.
Vietnam, meanwhile, remained the second-largest supplier, shipping 402,669 tons, down only 3.1%, thereby increasing its market share to 22.3%, compared with 21.2% in 2023.
Over the past decade, Vietnam’s share of China’s total rubber imports has grown nearly fivefold, from 4.7% in 2014 to 22.3% in 2024. In contrast, Thailand’s share has fallen dramatically from over 40% to just 32.6% during the same period.
Other Suppliers and Price Competitiveness
China also imported rubber from several other suppliers in Q1 2024:
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Malaysia: 185,875 tons (+5.2%)
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Russia: 143,623 tons (+39.2%)
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Côte d’Ivoire: 89,398 tons (–21.1%)
Vietnam’s average export price to China was USD 1,395 per ton, more competitive than Thailand (USD 1,506/ton), Malaysia (USD 1,497/ton), and Russia (USD 1,510/ton).
Rising Demand from China’s EV Industry
The Import–Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) noted that 2024 presents ongoing challenges for global trade, with China’s demand — Vietnam’s largest export market for natural rubber — remaining the key factorinfluencing export performance.
Rubber prices have recently reached their highest level in seven years, driven by strong demand from China’s electric vehicle (EV) industry and weak output from Thailand and Indonesia. This has created positive price prospects for Vietnamese rubber exporters.
Global Supply Shortage Expected Through 2025
The department further forecasts a global natural rubber supply deficit of 600,000–800,000 tons per year during 2024–2025. Global rubber consumption is projected to grow 4–6% annually, supported by the recovery of automobile and tire manufacturing, especially in China.
However, global rubber production is expected to grow only 1–3% per year. Major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia have seen declining plantation areas due to crop diseases and a shift to higher-value industrial crops.
Harvest productivity has also fallen in recent years amid disease outbreaks and extreme weather. In 2024, the transition between El Niño and La Niña is predicted to further disrupt harvesting cycles across Southeast Asia.
Regional Competitors Face Export Declines
During Q1 2024, Thailand’s exports of natural and compound rubber totaled 1.08 million tons, down 17% year-on-year, while Indonesia’s exports dropped 19.7% to 399,000 tons.
The combination of weaker supply from regional competitors and rising demand from China’s automotive sectorpositions Vietnam as an increasingly competitive and reliable supplier in Asia’s largest rubber market.