In 2024, Vietnam’s seafood export sector overcame numerous challenges — including raw material shortages, weakened demand, increasing competition, and tougher market barriers — to achieve export earnings exceeding USD 10 billion.
This figure does not include over USD 250 million from fishmeal exports, an important source of raw materials for the animal feed industry.
1. 2024 Performance Overview
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Shrimp Industry
Shrimp exports reached USD 3.9 billion, up 15% year-on-year, despite global consumption being impacted by inflation and competition from major producers like India, Ecuador, and Indonesia.
Vietnam maintained steady growth thanks to its focus on high-value processed products (GTGT) and diversified product lines — including whiteleg shrimp, black tiger shrimp, lobster, and marine shrimp — that enhanced competitiveness.
Pangasius Industry (Tra Fish)
Despite rising shipping costs and slow import price recovery, pangasius exports rebounded to USD 2 billion in 2024, up 9% from 2023. Traditional markets such as the U.S., Brazil, Colombia, and CPTPP member countries remained strong growth drivers.
Marine Seafood Exports
Export of wild-caught seafood (tuna, crab, squid, octopus, mollusks, and other marine fish) brought in over USD 4 billion, even amid raw material shortages and the need to comply with IUU fishing regulations.
2. Outlook for 2025: Growth Prospects Above USD 11 Billion
Vietnam’s seafood exports are expected to surpass USD 10 billion again and may reach the USD 11 billion mark seen in 2022. However, the sector will continue to face both promising opportunities and significant challenges.
3. Opportunities
Global Economic Recovery and Demand Rebound
Major economies such as the U.S., China, and the EU are showing signs of recovery, which will boost seafood consumption and imports. Traditional markets (U.S., EU, Japan, China) and emerging markets (Africa, Southeast Asia, Middle East) are expected to maintain strong demand, particularly for premium Vietnamese seafood.
Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)
Vietnam has signed 16 FTAs and is negotiating 3 more.
Modern trade agreements — especially the EVFTA and CPTPP — will continue to:
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Lower tariffs on Vietnamese seafood;
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Improve market access;
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Enhance competitiveness amid ongoing global geopolitical uncertainty.
Shift Toward Value-Added Products
Developing high-value seafood products is now both a trend and a strategic goal.
The utilization of seafood by-products (fish skin, bones, heads, shells, etc.) offers opportunities for added value, aligning with circular economy principles and reducing environmental impact.
U.S. Trade Policy and Tariff Changes
If the U.S. raises import tariffs on seafood from competing countries (e.g., China), Vietnam could benefit as an alternative supplier — thanks to competitive pricing and strong product reputation.
However, higher U.S. tariffs may also bring new challenges such as increased export costs and the risk of anti-dumping or countervailing duties.
4. Challenges
Climate Change Impacts
Rising sea levels, changing temperatures, and water pollution are expected to affect aquaculture and wild fish resources.
These changes could lead to disease outbreaks, reduced yields, and lower-quality raw materials.
Intensifying Global Competition
Major seafood exporters like India, Thailand, China, and Ecuador are expanding production and improving quality — creating price and product competition for Vietnamese exporters.
Rising Production Costs
Higher prices for feed, fuel, and logistics could reduce profit margins and weaken Vietnam’s competitive edge in global markets.
Trade Conflicts and Market Barriers
Ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions may disrupt global supply chains and increase input costs, affecting Vietnam’s export prices and market stability.
Moreover, trade defense measures (anti-dumping, anti-subsidy), IUU “yellow card” restrictions, and stricter environmental regulations may increase compliance costs for exporters.
Geopolitical Instability
Geopolitical tensions and conflicts could impact trade flows and seafood supply chains, posing risks to Vietnam’s export stability and logistics efficiency.
5. Strategic Directions for 2025
To sustain growth and competitiveness, Vietnam’s seafood industry should:
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Strengthen value-added processing and product traceability;
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Invest in sustainable aquaculture and eco-certification;
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Diversify markets beyond traditional destinations;
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Develop digital trade and logistics infrastructure;
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Enhance cooperation under FTA frameworks to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers.
With continued government support, proactive adaptation by enterprises, and evolving global demand, Vietnam’s seafood exports in 2025 are positioned for both resilient growth and deeper market integration.