Instead of the usual dry daily bulletins about prices rising one day and falling the next—especially now that real physical coffee stocks are not that plentiful—the typical “price-watching” game has lost much of its appeal to those holding coffee. So, for this weekend, Giacaphe.com presents a more relaxed Weekend Coffee Story, blending the latest market information with a few coffee tales from around the world—no fixed theme, just the observations of someone who has followed and studied the coffee market for many years.
End-of-Week Coffee Prices
Table of Contents
As always, we begin with the latest price action.
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Arabica (September contract) closed last Friday slightly higher, up 0.45 cents/pound, after trading within a moderate range of –4.3 cents to +2.2 cents/pound during the session.
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Robusta, by contrast, fell USD 36 to USD 4,011/ton, after swinging from +USD 58 to –USD 66 in the same session—leaving many unsure which direction Vietnam’s key Robusta market will take next.
Market reports often give tidy explanations such as “prices rose because of less rain” or “stocks increased, so prices fell.” In truth, these are usually just literal translations of the newswire text. From the perspective of an independent coffee-market researcher, such explanations are rarely convincing.
Coffee as a True Financial Market
For some time now, coffee has behaved like a full-fledged financial market. Thanks to advances in computing and the convenience of smartphones, anyone around the globe can now trade coffee futures just like any other commodity—without being a grower, a roaster, or even involved in the physical coffee business. This vast army of financial traders exerts huge influence on prices. Naturally, they still monitor weather patterns and harvest updates, and they are keenly aware that July often brings excitement if Brazil’s winter weather suddenly turns “cold.”
On Friday, Arabica prices fell to a two-week low and Robusta to a one-week low. One key factor was the decline of Brazil’s real, which typically encourages growers to sell. When the currency weakens, producers and speculators rush to liquidate positions, sometimes driving prices even lower than fundamentals suggest.
Brazil’s harvest is also moving faster than usual: Safras & Mercado reported on June 25 that 50% of the 2024/25 crop had already been picked—up from 45% at the same time last year and above the five-year average of 47%. Forecasts call for cool, dry weather next week, normal for this time of year and generally favorable for harvesting and drying.
Remember: when Brazilian winter weather reports mention “dry conditions,” don’t assume drought. The Southern Hemisphere’s winter is sunny yet cold—ideal for harvest. The real danger is sudden cold air masses from the far south or west that can bring frost, the true threat to Brazil’s coffee trees.
Stock Levels and Global Supply
Certified Arabica stocks in New York fell by 275 bags yesterday, to 808,184 bags. As long as daily reports still count bags one by one, it signals that supply remains tight. From this perspective, coffee prices are likely to stay firm at least until the 2025/26 crop.
Notably, the April harvests in Colombia (mainly Arabica) and Indonesia (mostly Robusta) have not yet made any significant impact on prices. Robusta remains above USD 4,000 and Arabica above 200 cents.
Questioning Official Forecasts
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects global coffee output at 176.24 million bags, exceeding consumption by 5.6 million bags, citing strong production growth in Brazil and Indonesia—up 4.2% from last season and near the record 2020/21 crop.
But many doubt this optimism, particularly the USDA’s estimate of 27.85 million bags for Vietnam’s Robusta, which is far higher than the 22–23 million bags suggested by trade sources and Vietnam’s Vicofa. Severe drought, extreme heat, and pest outbreaks have fueled market skepticism. Even if rainfall returns, precipitation remains below normal as El Niño transitions to La Niña, raising concerns for Southeast Asian production.
While USDA expects output to exceed consumption and rebuild stocks by about 8% after three years of decline, even that increase would still leave inventories below 2022/23 levels and far below the 37.49 million bags of 2020/21.
In short, despite talk of a production surplus, supply remains tight and inventories low. For now, coffee prices are likely to stay robust. These are the key insights we wish to share with growers and market followers in this Weekend Coffee Story, and we look forward to bringing you the next update in our Tuesday morning bulletin.